In Asteroid Headed our way they say that if the most probably trajectory is followed, its orbit will be altered for impact in 2036. This is all well and good except as with all of these models, they don’t tell you about all of the previously innaccurate measurements they had which suggested nothing of the sort. This just happens to be the current set of “best-to-date” innaccurate measurements which are newsworthy. Makes for lively debate, I guess… and they say as much.
Earth and Moon showing min/avg/max distance, to scale